PM spotlight

Steve Morris, CFA, Senior Managing Director & Portfolio Manager

 

 

Steve’s take: “Canadian inflation cooled in Q2 with year-over-year headline CPI decelerating to 2.7% (figure 1), 0.1% below market consensus. The average of the Bank of Canada’s two core inflation measures remained steady at 2.7%. With apparent easing of price pressures, the odds appear favourable for further central bank rate cuts.”

Gasoline price growth softened to 0.4% year-over-year, largely contributing to the deceleration in headline CPI.

Shelter remains the main driver of year-over-year inflation with prices increasing 6.2%, contributing 1.8% to headline inflation (figure 2). Excluding shelter, the year-over-year increase in CPI is 1.3%, Within shelter, rented accommodation continues to run hot at 8.5% year over year while owned accommodation has stabilized at around 6% year over year as mortgage interest costs have decelerated somewhat and insurance and property taxes have been elevated.

Food prices are also a key driver of year-over-year inflation, with prices increasing 2.8%, contributing 0.5% to headline inflation.