From the Desk

Issuance for 2023 started off on a strong footing with robust volumes in Q1, which was down somewhat from 2022 but stronger than 2021 for the comparable time periods. Financial issuance for Q1 2023 was down significantly year over year, but was partially offset by strong robust volumes from industrial, utility and transportation. With continuing uncertainty around the market – from inflation, interest rates and turmoil in the banking sector – investment grade private credit (IG private credit) is exhibiting the risk/return characteristics investors might be looking for.

In this quarter's issue, we discuss the decrease in headline CPI year-over-year and provide an update on the active secondary RRB market.

With inflation on the rise, we'd like to share our investment team's latest insights on changes in the CPI and Canada's headline CPI contribution year-over-year, the break-even inflation rate and curve, and real return bonds on a quarterly basis. This overview includes commentary from Steven Morris, Senior Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at SLC Management.

We are pleased to present SLC Management’s investment outlook for 2023. This report reflects the diverse viewpoints of our investment teams and solutions providers, with analyses of public and private fixed income, real estate, infrastructure, insurance asset management and retirement plans.

Following the Government of Canada’s decision last week to cease issuance of real return bonds (RRBs), we’ve spoken to a number of dealers to understand the impact of this move. More broadly, we’ve heard that the overall tone is less liquidity, and dealers anticipate less trading. In a few cases, we’ve heard of index fund managers rebalancing their portfolios (primarily trading 50s and 54s). Some dealers’ clients commented that if there were distressed sellers, they would be better buyers. However, there have been no distressed sellers. Overall, recent weeks have been very quiet for RRBs.

The third quarter of 2022 was a continuation of the challenges seen all year as the U.S. Fed continued to combat inflation with significant rate increases, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and deteriorating global growth prospects.

With inflation on the rise, we'd like to share our investment team's latest insights on changes in the CPI and Canada's headline CPI contribution year-over-year, the break-even inflation rate and curve, and real return bonds on a quarterly basis. This overview includes commentary from Steven Morris, Senior Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at SLC Management.

Yesterday’s announcement about real return bond issuance was shocking and we’re writing to share thoughts from Steve Morris, Senior Managing Director & Portfolio Manager and Ashwin Gopwani, Managing Director and Head of Canadian Client Solutions.

In this extraordinary time of market transition, private credit appears uniquely positioned to remain resilient and capitalize on compelling investment opportunities and higher returns generated by volatility and dislocations in the public markets.

Randy Brown, Chief Investment Officer at Sun Life & Head of Insurance Asset Management at SLC Management, provides his thoughts on how the Russia/Ukraine conflict is impacting our global macro views.

With the proliferation of cryptocurrencies, governments are grappling with the challenge of regulating these new currencies. And in concert, central banks are struggling with the inevitability that cash in circulation continues its decline as electronic payments surge. To maintain relevance, central banks feel pressure to offer their own digital coin.

Inflation tends to top the list of economic risks that investors obsess most about. After all, runaway inflation has devastated some economies over the centuries. Corralling inflation and keeping expectations well-anchored have been key mandates for most central banks for decades. However, inflation expectations are not uniform across age groups.

Microchips are the workhorses of the digital economy. Though they spend most of their time hidden under the hood of devices, supply disruptions get noticed quickly. Right now, the car industry is scaling back production as it waits for chip manufacturers to restock. Production of smartphones, gaming equipment, and home appliances are also feeling the pinch as chip manufacturers struggle to meet demand.  

In the league of elite investors, few can rival the late David Swensen, former head of the Yale Endowment. As Chief Investment Officer of this multi-billion dollar fund, he delivered top performance over multiple decades, and his investing style influenced an entire industry. Swensen’s innovative and rigorous approach to asset allocation and expanding its range was revered, with others rushing to replicate it. This approach became known as the “Yale Model”, and revolutionized endowment investing.

The most prominent commodity index, the S&P GSCI, is up over 86% since last March. While most markets have roared back since the depths of the COVID-19 market scare, commodities have been a frontrunner in the recovery. Talk of a commodity supercycle is already heating up, but investors should be careful not to overreact to recent data. Some commodities are notorious for fleeting booms and busts and typically need fundamental shifts in demand or supply to elevate prices for an extended period.

If there is one fear that seems to constantly haunt investors, it is that latent inflation flares up and flattens markets. Most central banks in developed economies look to target a 2% inflation rate and have, over the last several decades, succeeded in anchoring investor expectations.

Economic history shows a remarkable pattern of broad themes that play out over decades. Each subsequent shift to a new phase is usually accelerated by innovation or a geopolitical shock. These transitions usually have fundamental impacts on growth, inflation and asset prices.

Our PM’s discuss the prospects of inflation and potential effects on U.S. markets.

Bitcoin emerged from the scars of the 2008 financial crisis as distrust in governments and central banks inspired the digital currency to thrive outside the establishment. Unlike traditional currencies backed by sovereign credit and taxing authority, Bitcoin has no equivalent support. This push for monetary independence found early adopters in those that wanted to transact anonymously. Then with time, it captured broader investor interest. Yesterday, Tesla announced that it has bought $1.5 billion of bitcoin, which it plans to accept as payment.

President-elect Joseph R. Biden is poised to take office and contend with a number of economic challenges. What does the U.S. election outcome mean for the domestic and international market outlook?

Recent research based on investment performance from 1906 through to 2008 makes a compelling case that investors could learn a lot from U.S. university endowments.

The Bank of Canada must handle three challenges simultaneously—providing economic stimulus, hitting inflation targets and managing its massively expanded balance sheet—all while dealing with associated credit and political risks.

In the press conference following today’s FOMC meeting led by Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, the shift in policy is an admission that there was more labor market slack than models or policy makers imagined over the last several years.

The U.S. and China relationship remains tense. The global devastation of Covid-19 provided a flashpoint for recriminations as countries quarrel about who should have done more. Geopolitical risks rise further as Americans go to the polls in November and China’s President, Xi Jinping, aims to sustain nationalism as the economy recovers from the pandemic.

President Donald Trump’s chances of keeping his job were a lot higher before a global health crisis reached the U.S. With COVID-19 battering the economy, public sentiment is rapidly shifting towards Democrat and Former Vice President Joe Biden – a pragmatic moderate who now holds a double-digit lead in national polls.

As unemployment spiked this spring, the U.S. government put its faith in the $500 billion of loans to small businesses from the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Yet this huge wave of stimulus did little to secure jobs, according to preliminary results from a study by economist Raj Chetty and his team at Harvard.

As the world starts to re-open, most economists agree that a V-shaped recovery looks unlikely. There won’t be a return to “normal” for a while. However, the investment themes that will drive performance over the next decade are already emerging. Investors who are quick to adapt to the post-crisis landscape should have a market edge.

The global economy is entering what may be the deepest recession since the 1930’s. Today’s non-farm payroll numbers underline the scale of the financial crisis the U.S. is now facing. The 14.7% unemployment rate is undoubtedly higher as the report cuts off in mid-April while new jobless claims persist.

The global COVID-19 pandemic is unequivocally a black swan: a rare, but devastating event. Economists often draw parallels to wars and natural disasters to model the outcomes of pandemics, but while the analogy is apt in terms of human suffering, the economic aftermaths are different.

Check out the Canadian market news update on the recent Bank of Canada announcement.

The full effect of social distancing won’t be reflected in tomorrow’s tally of March’s U.S. non-farm payroll numbers, but it will signify the start of a historic period of unemployment. Jobless claims – which provide a real-time measurement – have already skyrocketed, and millions more could lose their jobs as COVID-19 continues to stifle activity. As reported, many of those impacted work for small businesses or are self-employed.

Last week, the Federal Reserve System (Fed) surprised markets with an emergency 50 basis point (bps) cut. While this policy-easing will do little to stall the Coronavirus, it can support financial conditions and bolster liquidity by making it easier for consumers and small businesses to avoid a cash crunch.

February 2020 saw the spread of the coronavirus enter a new phase. South Korean and Italian hot spots emerged and countries around the world went on high alert. Almost 50 countries have now reported at least one infection within their borders.

With another uneventful earnings season coming to a close, the long stretch of near-record corporate profit margins is making investors nervous that a correction is brewing. That anxiety seems overdone. There is mounting evidence that large U.S. companies are more resilient than ever.

Superbugs that resist treatment and spread rapidly like Coronavirus always catch the headlines. The market impact of most viruses tends to be intense, but it soon fades. However, this round is different, and investors could be underestimating the longer-term impact of this latest health emergency on global supply chains.

By Peter Cramer, Senior Portfolio Manager, Insurance Asset Management After years of modest price rises, investors have become immune to inflation risk and are increasingly unwilling to pay the insurance premium to protect their portfolios. A return of above-target inflation could cause a sudden spur of volatility.

The recent Middle East confrontations between the U.S. and Iran has done little to permanently push up the price of oil. Oil prices spiked on the days when there were acts of aggression, but quickly retraced as the other side contained its response. Was this moderation in oil volatility the result of adept diplomacy, or is it a more structural reduction in geopolitical risk?

By Dec Mullarkey, Managing Director, Investment Strategic Research & Initiatives, SLC Management A tumultuous year for geopolitics in 2019, but risky assets held up. Expect more of the same in 2020.

With the first jobs release of 2020 being published tomorrow, investors will be paying more attention than usual. Last October, Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist, developed a new, and remarkably simple, measure of recession risk based on the unemployment rate.

As we settle back in following a summer of volatility, the markets have struck a note of cautious optimism. This uptick promises to be more than a fleeting relief rally. There are nascent indications that the recovery in equity prices and Treasury yields are justified by fundamentals, and that investors have been too slow to adjust to a more positive narrative. 

The comment that “rates can’t remain this low for long,” has been heard steadily in fixed income markets for the last 20 years as yields have continued to reach new lows. In fact, over US$15 trillion of global government bonds have negative yields. Today, low rates are a global phenomenon. In order to see a sustained move to higher rates, we need to see both stronger global growth and signs of increased inflation, neither of which appear to be on the horizon.