From the Desk

Market insights from our investment teams

Week of  September 21, 2026

Dec Mullarkey

Managing Director, Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation
LinkedIn

The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond remains an important barometer for the pulse of global markets. Most U.S. mortgages are priced off it, and U.S. corporations rely considerably on 10-year debt. This week, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level in two decades. Higher rates can spell trouble and there is certainly much to worry about. Government debt keeps building with few politicians rushing to demand austerity. Wars and energy disruptions are stoking inflation, while households’ number one worry is affordability. Yet, growth is holding up, employment levels are healthy and consumers keep spending. 

The rise in this year’s 10-year yield has been less about inflation worries, as the market expects the U.S. Federal Reserve will contain it, and more about real rates. These rates capture the base clearing price for the demand and supply of capital. Sometimes real rates are driven by elevated risk or a dash to support growth. This time, it seems to be a combination of AI capital demand to build its future and the large debt load countries need to keep financing. In other words, demand is running high, so suppliers can charge more.

One of the data points that sparked a spike in rates this week was a surprise uptick in manufacturing and services. The combined showing is one of the best in several years. Meanwhile, bond investors remain a disciplined crew and worry about downside risks. They are also acknowledging the current economic strength, while pushing up the price to finance it.  

Sources: Bloomberg, The Financial Times, 2026.

The information may include statements which reflect expectations or forecasts of future events. Such forward-looking statements are speculative in nature and may be subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions and actual results which could differ significantly from the statements. All opinions and commentary are subject to change without notice. SLC Management is not affiliated with, nor endorsing, any third parties mentioned within this article.

Market insights are based on individual author opinions and market observations. SLC Management investment teams may hold different views and/or make different investment decisions. These are observations only and are not intended to provide specific financial, tax, investment, insurance, legal or accounting advice and should not be relied upon and do not constitute a specific offer to buy and/or sell securities, insurance or investment services. Investors should consult with their professional advisors before acting upon any information posted here. 

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