From the Desk

Market insights from our investment teams

Week of  April 27, 2026

Dec Mullarkey

Managing Director, Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation
LinkedIn

Famed Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist Rudi Dornbusch once mused that a currency crisis “took forever, and then it took one night.…”. That point has been generalized to acknowledge that economic stress can be slow moving before dramatically shifting. That question is now facing markets. When could the tipping point come for oil? When could prices explode to a level that impairs global growth? Analysis from various energy researchers suggest it could happen by the end of May.

At that point, storage capacity in the Gulf region hits its limit and facilities shut down. When the rest of the world is forced to draw down inventories, nations start planning for the worst and rationing usage. Some of this is happening in Africa and Asia. It’s also starting in Europe as airlines cut back on flights. But the calendar will also start to exacerbate the price dynamics. As we get closer to summer vacations, travel picks up. And Europe in particular has to start stocking up on natural gas for the winter.

Financial markets are assuming that those in charge of negotiating the opening of the Strait of Hormuz understand the urgency and will pull back from the edge. But for now, both sides are sticking to their maximalist demands and playing brinkmanship, or at least that’s what the headlines imply. The hope is that more is happening behind the scenes, and that’s what markets are banking on.

Sources: Bloomberg, The Financial Times, 2026. 

The information may include statements which reflect expectations or forecasts of future events. Such forward-looking statements are speculative in nature and may be subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions and actual results which could differ significantly from the statements. All opinions and commentary are subject to change without notice. SLC Management is not affiliated with, nor endorsing, any third parties mentioned within this article.

Market insights are based on individual author opinions and market observations. SLC Management investment teams may hold different views and/or make different investment decisions. These are observations only and are not intended to provide specific financial, tax, investment, insurance, legal or accounting advice and should not be relied upon and does not constitute a specific offer to buy and/or sell securities, insurance or investment services. Investors should consult with their professional advisors before acting upon any information posted here. 

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